Updated Costa Fuego study outlines 20 years of copper-gold production
27 March 2025

After a decade in the Chilean copper space, Hot Chili is closer than ever to delivering a developable Costa Fuego project it now believes can deliver some 3.3 billion pounds of the red metal over two decades.

Two years after delivering a preliminary economic assessment, today’s prefeasibility study has outlined a more expensive, but larger and more robust development option that could generate US$3.9 billion in free cash over 20 years.

The PFS outlines a project that could produce around 116,000 tonnes per annum of copper equivalent over the mine life at all-in sustaining costs of $1.85/lb after credits for the gold, silver, and molybdenum.

The first 14 years should support the production of 95,000tpa copper and 48,000 ounces per annum gold from reserves now re-stated as 502Mt grading 0.37% copper, 0.10 grams per tonne gold, 0.49gpt silver, and 97 parts per million molybdenum.

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Total resources are 798 Mt grading 0.45% CuEq, making it one of the largest undeveloped copper projects globally.

Early mining is concentrated at the Productora and Alice open pits before the focus shifts to the Cortadera underground.

Processing comes from a circa 21Mtpa sulphide concentrator and leaching facilities.

Initial capex is now $1.27 billion, almost $220 million more than originally outlined, while an expansion will cost almost double the prior estimate at $1.3 billion. 

Assuming a copper price of $4.30/lb, post-tax net present value is put at $1.2 billion with an internal rate of return of 19%.

Payback should be around 4.5 years.

At the prevailing near-record spot price of $5.30/lb, NPV jumps to $2.2 billion with an IRR of 30%.

Credits: Hot Chili

Hot Chili says its work has reduced development risks, and it estimates it will offer some of the lowest capital intensities of any project along Chile’s coastal belt at $14,079/t CuEq.

The company expects to have a better leverage to the copper price than its peers, such as Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine or Santo Domingo development, BHP’s new Filo del Sol investment, or Solgold’s Cascabel.

Further, its location on the coastal belt offers easier access to water and power than its peers at higher elevations.

Hot Chili also claims to have a head start in permitting on its rivals. Its stage one environmental impact assessment is due to be submitted soon. 

Growth targets

Work on a second EIA that supports the integration of the La Verde porphyry, which was excluded from the PFS, could enhance project economics in the planned definitive feasibility study.

Managing director Christian Easterday said Hot Chili was now “within an elite grouping of copper developments globally” that could offer a meaningful source of near-term copper into a market set to struggle to meet demand.

The company will advance its DFS and drill out La Verde over the next year.

It aims to deliver its first red metal by the end of the decade. 

Glencore looming in background

The question remains: how will it pay for it? Hot Chili has around A$19 million in cash to fund its DFS and studies for a complementary Huasco water supply and desalination business. 

With Glencore still on the register as a 7.5% shareholder, it is an obvious development partner. As long as the Swiss-based trader maintains that equity level, it can purchase up to 60% of concentrate for the first eight years of its life.

A PFS for the Huasco Water project is also imminent.

Hot Chili shares were up 2% in early trade to 72c, capitalising the company at $108 million.

The stock has traded between 60c and $1.31 over the past year, having peaked at $2.60 in 2020.

Andrew ToddSponsored

Thu, 27 March 2025 2:47PM

Hot Chili has dropped a bombshell prefeasibility study for its Costa Fuego copper-gold project in Chile, cementing its place among the world’s top copper developments with a 20-year mine life, top-tier production scale and economics that scream upside in today’s red-hot metals market.

At a conservative copper price of US$4.30 (A$6.79) per pound and gold at US$2280 per ounce, Costa Fuego has a post-tax net present value (NPV) of US$1.2 billion (A$1.9b) assuming an 8 per cent discount rate. The figure quickly blows out to a massive US$2.2b (A$3.5b) at current spot prices, allowing for a much quicker return on investment in the process.

The company’s latest milestone reveals Costa Fuego is poised to pump out an average of 116,000 tonnes per annum of copper-equivalent metal, which includes 95,000t of copper and 48,000 ounces of gold in its first 14 years.

Across its full 20-year life span the project is set to deliver a staggering 1.5 million tonnes of copper and 780,000 ounces of gold before any by-products are factored in. Hot Chili says the haul will put it firmly in the top quartile of global producing copper projects.

The project is set for a five-year payback period on capital expenditure clocking in an internal rate of return of 19 per cent on an upfront US$1.27b (A$2b) to get the mine running.

Hot Chili reports a total life-of-mine free cash flow of some US$3.86b after tax, with revenue pegged at a whopping US$17.3b.

The eye-popping numbers still have plenty of room for improvement, thanks to a surging gold and copper price. Copper is flying thanks to United States President Donald Trump’s tariff war. The gold price is too, as it continues to push new all-time highs above US$3000 per ounce. At current prices, Hot Chili’s forecast NPV rockets up to US$2.2b (A$3.5b) and the internal rate of return jumps to 30 per cent.

In fact, every US$0.10 per pound bump in the copper price adds another US$100 million to the NPV, making Costa Fuego a highly leveraged play in a market screaming for more copper amid electrification and renewable energy booms.

The company will now kick off its definitive feasibility study (DFS) and submission for stage one environmental approvals to keep the project on-track for first production before the end of the decade.

With cash of approximately A$19 million as at the end of last year and both of our key assets (Costa Fuego and Huasco Water) at PFS level study, we are well positioned to pursue potential strategic partnership and sponsorship funding discussions.Hot Chili managing director Christian Easterday

Costa Fuego is widely regarded as one of the better undeveloped copper resources globally. It has a mammoth combined resource of 798mt grading 0.45 per cent copper equivalent for 2.9mt of copper, 2.6m ounces of gold, 12.9m ounces of silver and 68,000t of molybdenum.

The company has tabled a maiden ore reserve of 502 million tonnes grading 0.37 per cent copper, 0.10 grams per tonne (g/t) gold from blending an open pit and underground mining strategy across its Cortadera, Productora, Alice and San Antonio deposits.

Nestled at a low 740 metres above sea level on Chile’s coastal range, Costa Fuego leverages a strategic edge few jurisdictions can match. It is just 60 kilometres from the Las Losas port and a stone’s throw from Vallenar’s skilled workforce.

The projected mining costs are calculated to be below the benchmark of undeveloped competitors, with the project’s C1 cash cost sits at a lean US$1.38 per pound of copper, including by-product credits, with an all-in sustaining cost of US$1.85 per pound – placing it among the lowest-cost producers globally.

Hot Chili has outlined a hybrid mining approach for its considerable undertaking. Open pits will cornerstone the low-cost operation, accompanied by a massive block cave mining operation down to 1000m at its flagship Cortadera deposit. The operation will kick off in year three and add 146mt of higher-grade feed.

The company’s processing will be undertaken by a massive 20.7mt-21.7mt per annum sulphide concentrator, a 4mtpa oxide heap leach and a 3.6mtpa low-grade sulphide leach that will churn out concentrate and cathode copper.

Hot Chili isn’t quite done yet with exploration at its Chile operation, saying its recent La Verde copper-gold porphyry discovery, 35km south of Costa Fuego, is shaping up as a game-changing second porphyry project.

La Verde’s wide, shallow intercepts, including 320m at 0.3 per cent copper and 0.1g/t gold, hint at a massive system still open in all directions. Step-out drilling is underway, and the company believes it can one day fold La Verde into Costa Fuego’s production hub, potentially juicing front-end mine life and economics ahead of a DFS.

With copper prices soaring and gold continuously at all-time highs, Costa Fuego’s timing is impeccable. The company’s $19m cash pile positions it well to rapidly expand La Verde while simultaneously courting strategic partners for production, as it charges toward the all-important DFS milestone.

In partnership with BULLS N’ BEARS

Hot Chili says it can solve Chile’s water problem for large industrial projects in the Huasco Valley region and bank US$447m over 20 years in free cash by getting into the water supply business using its giant Costa Fuego copper play as a foundation off-taker.

The company recently tabled a pre-feasibility study on its 80 per cent owned Huasco Water project in Chile that makes use of its hard won permit to supply sea water to Chile’s Huasco Valley region. According to management, the Huasco joint venture holds the only active maritime license in the Huasco region – a feat that it says took 10 years of regulatory burden to achieve.

The JV is aiming to develop a long-term, regional multi-user seawater and desalination water supply network for the Huasco valley area of the Southern Atacama region of Chile, which sits about 600km north of the Santiago capital.

Hot Chili says the project will initially cost US$151m in start up capital which it says can be paid back in 4.5 years from the operation.

Total expected revenues have been modelled over 20 years and come in at US$880M and the project shows a pre-tax net present value using an 8 per cent discount rate of US$179m and a 22 per cent internal rate of return.

‘The company views the potential to outsourcing of its seawater supply infrastructure as a key value enabler…’Hot Chili managing director Christian Easterday

Stage 1 for the business will target the potential supply of seawater at 500 litres per second (L/s) to Hot Chili’s Costa Feugo copper-gold project which will be the foundation off-taker for the project via a 62km over-land pipeline.

A memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been executed with its own Costa Feugo project that will see the supply of seawater for the duration of the 20-year project life.

In addition to its sought after concessions to extract sea water, Huasco Water has permits for coastal land access, stage 1 pipeline easements and has secured connection to the electricity grid. The company plans to supply seawater by the end of the decade.

Stage 2 will see a desalination plant, estimated to cost US$1.4 billion, supply water at a rate of 1300L/s to a range of potential businesses within the Huasco Valley region.

The numbers really begin to ramp up during the second stage, with post-tax-free cash flows jumping to an estimated $4 billion from revenue of US$9.35B modelled over 22 years.

The post-tax NPV for stage 2 comes in at $977M with a 4 year payback.

The company’s staged approach enables scaling up for long term supply to mining, community and agricultural firms in the Huasco Valley region, with the potential to stretch beyond initial project estimates.

Hot Chili managing director Christian Easterday said: “The outcomes of the water supply preliminary feasibility study provide an opportunity for Hot Chili to fully consider the strategic value of its 80 per cent owned subsidiary company Huasco Water, which controls all our critical water assets. The company views the potential to outsourcing of its seawater supply infrastructure as a key value enabler and has anchored Huasco Water by executing a memorandum of understanding to negotiate a foundational seawater offtake agreement for Costa Fuego.”

Huasco Water has identified possible demand of at least up to 4000L/s across six undeveloped mining projects, all requiring access to a desalinated water supply.

Desalination water supply is projected to occur shortly after the seawater supply, due to begin at the end of the decade, is piped to Costa Feugo.

The permitting process to upgrade its maritime concessions to enable desalinated water to be provided is advancing.

The Huasco Valley region contains one of the largest groupings of major undeveloped copper projects in the world, all of which are in need of a reliable water supply. If an improving copper price warrants a move towards production for Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego, Huasco Water will be dragged along with it.

Management says just three potential clients in the region who may tap into their water business are Teck Resources, Atex Resources and Agrosuper.

Agrosuper is a food production company and also produces animal feed. An MOU for desalinated water has been executed with the group.

The HW Aguas para El Huasco SpA (Huasco Water) is a joint venture between Hot Chili (80 per cent interest) and Compañia Minera Del Pacifico – CMP (20 per cent interest).

Huasco Water is the only company with permitted access to supply seawater in the Huasco Valley region following a ten-year regulatory approval process.

The permitting process for desalination water has advanced over the past year with regulatory applications made to enable the supply from the existing maritime concession. A second maritime concession application by Huasco Water has been lodged. The second application includes brine discharge for the potential seawater desalination operations.

Hot Chili’s first mover advantage in the water sector in Chile cannot be overstated. The demand in the area appears to be real and the barriers to entry for others that have not suffered the ten year ordeal to get permitted just might give Huasco and Hot Chili a potentially decades long free run at supplying water to both its own project and the other mega projects that are littered around the area with no current water options.

With copper prices recently on the move, Hot Chili stands to derive a double benefit. Not only will the economics at its Costa Feugo project improve, but the company stands to reap the rewards from other copper groups in the region who may develop a thirst for some Huasco water.

Doug Bright BULLS N’ BEARS

Hot Chili has secured the milestone government registrations necessary to help fast-track its Costa Fuego copper-gold and Huasco Water projects in Chile.

The registrations, before Chile’s Office for Sustainable Project Management, confirm the two projects meet the government’s key criteria for consideration for a list of strategic investment projects that could be prioritised through a streamlined administrative approvals process.

Part of the office’s objectives is to optimise and accelerate approvals for projects that promote sustainability.

Hot Chili’s maiden combined probable open pit and underground ore reserves for its Costa Fuego project stands at 502 million tonnes at 0.37 per cent copper, 0.10 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, 0.49g/t silver and 97 parts per million molybdenum across multiple processing streams. The streams include the sulphide concentrator, oxide leach and low-grade sulphide leach processes.

The total combined metal in the reserves is a heady 1.86Mt copper, 1.58M ounces of gold, 7.95M ounces silver and 49,000t molybdenum.

Significant additional opportunity exists to extend the overall resource numbers with the company’s recent discovery of copper-gold porphyry mineralisation at its non-contiguous but nearby La Verde project.

La Verde is the latest addition to Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego production hub. It is only 50 kilometres south by road from the company’s central processing facility at Productora, within the company’s Costa Fuego group of projects.

The Costa Fuego complex is on Chile’s coastal range and comprises the company’s principal reserves zones at Productora, Alice, San Antonio and Cortadera, which all lie within a radius of about 10km.

The centre of the company’s contiguous tenure and its current resources is about 63km southeast of the port city of Huasco, in the Huasco province of the nation’s highly prospective Atacama region.

Huasco plays an important role in Hot Chili’s plans, as it is the proposed location for the seawater intake for the company’s Huasco Water project.

Huasco Water is an joint venture between Hot Chili and Chilean mining company Compañia Minera Del Pacifico. With its first-mover advantage, Huasco Water is the only company permitted to supply seawater in the Huasco Valley region, following a 10-year regulatory approval process.

The combined projects possess a valuable, unique and strategic mix for Hot Chili over the next decade and have what the company describes as a “top quartile copper production capacity with lowest quartile capital intensity”.

Hot Chili undertook March pre-feasibility studies for the water and the Costa Fuego gold-copper projects. A positive study outcome provides Hot Chili with an opportunity to consider the strategic value of its 80%-owned subsidiary company Huasco Water, which controls all its critical water assets.

The company sees significant value potential in outsourcing its vital seawater supply infrastructure and has secured Huasco Water’s position by executing a memorandum of understanding for a ground-breaking seawater offtake agreement for a proposed large-scale, multi-customer water business.

Its stage one water supply pre-feasibility study examined the delivery of 500 litres per second (L/s) of seawater, followed by a stage two 1300L/s of desalinated seawater supply.

A conceptual stage three study looked at future expansion to supply up to 2300L/s of desalinated water.

The staged approach considers the initial establishment of seawater supply infrastructure, including pumps and pipelines, towards the end of the decade, to be followed by an initial desalinated water supply and then subsequent phases of expansion.

It would enable long-term water supply to be scaled to regional demand growth to support mining, communities and agriculture in the Huasco Valley, with the potential to extend well beyond the project’s initial horizons.

The concept is further supported by significant interest in Huasco Water displayed by other Chilean and international water infrastructure investment groups, along with nearby mine developers, agricultural and community groups and government bodies.

Hot Chili says while long permitting timelines continue, its desalination permitting is progressing and no regulatory changes have been made to Chile’s maritime permitting process since Huasco Water was granted its concession.

Additionally, the company’s environmental impact assessment (EIA) is advancing, with its stage one seawater supply baseline studies completed for inclusion in its Costa Fuego EIA.

The latest registration is a significant milestone that confirms Hot Chili’s projects meet the Chilean government’s objective criteria to acquire priority status.

With the paperwork in hand for both Costa Fuego and Huasco Water, the company is now able to centralise and monitor all of its active permitting processes through a single platform and supervisory entity.

The current permitting needs include the company’s second maritime concession application for Huasco Water and its upcoming EIA submission for Costa Fuego and Huasco Water.

Andrew Todd BULLS N’ BEARS

Hot Chili has secured the services of two seasoned mining executives to bolster leadership as the company progresses its Costa Fuego copper-gold project and Huasco Water venture in Chile’s Atacama region.

Ex-Gold Fields Australia executive Stuart Mathews joins as non-executive chairman, while Chilean copper expert Alberto Cerda assumes the role of project director. Cerda brings a particular set of skills… namely in mine development and operations to support the company’s upcoming definitive feasibility studies for both projects.

The appointments align with Hot Chili’s strategic focus on advancing its low-altitude, copper and water projects amid a looming copper market, which has international majors clamouring for quality.

Hot Chili says Mathews’ and Cerda’s proven expertise in delivering large-scale mining operations – particularly in Chile in Cerda’s case – positions the company to navigate the complexities of project development, resource optimisation and strategic partnerships in the world’s top copper producing country.

Costa Fuego is a large copper-gold porphyry set to churn out 116,000 tonnes per annum of copper-equivalent metal, which includes 95,000t of copper and 48,000 ounces of gold in its first 14 years. Importantly for Hot Chili’s metals mix, chairman Mathews comes from a gold mining background as the recent executive vice president for Gold Fields in Australasia, where he oversaw operations producing more than 1 million ounces of gold annually.

Cerda takes care of the copper background as a Chilean mining engineer with more than 40 years of experience in major copper projects in Chile for companies such as Newmont, Barrick and BHP Billiton.

Hot Chili’s projects are strategically positioned to benefit from rising copper demand and regional infrastructure needs. Costa Fuego’s robust economics and Huasco Water’s exclusive water supply permit make it strategically significant to the region.

With environmental permitting and exploration ongoing, the company is well-placed to deliver and further extend its overall resource numbers, thanks to a recent discovery of copper-gold porphyry mineralisation at its non-contiguous but nearby La Verde project.

Located 60 kilometres from Las Losas port on Chile’s coastal range, Costa Fuego is Hot Chili’s flagship project. A recent prefeasibility study outlined a 20-year mine life with a maiden ore reserve of 502Mt grading 0.37 per cent copper, 0.10 grams per tonne (g/t) gold, 0.49g/t silver, and 97 parts per million (ppm) molybdenum, with a contained 1.86Mt copper, 1.58M ounces gold, 7.95M ounces silver and 49,000t molybdenum.

The project is expected to generate a post-tax net present value (NPV) of US$1.2 billion at a US$4.30 a pound copper price and US$2280 per ounce gold price. At current market prices, the NPV increases to US$2.2B, with a 19 per cent internal rate of return and a five-year payback on US$1.27B capital expenditure.

Hot Chili’s 80 per cent-owned Huasco Water project, in partnership with Compañia Minera del Pacifico, addresses critical water scarcity in the Huasco Valley.

Secured after a decade-long regulatory process, Huasco Water holds the region’s only maritime licence for seawater supply, providing the project with a significant competitive advantage. Its recent pre-feasibility study detailed a two-stage development plan to supply water to local major copper producers, to earn an estimated revenue of US$9.35B and a US$977M NPV over 22 years of supply.

The company has completed its baseline environmental studies and a second maritime concession application is under review, positioning Huasco Water, like Costa Fuego copper, to commence supply by the end of the decade.

With copper prices soaring and gold continuing at all-time highs, the appointments come at pivotal time in the company’s development. Hot Chili says it remains on a tidy $7.5M cash pile to rapidly expand its resources, while simultaneously courting strategic partners for production at its huge copper and water undertakings.